Why You’re Gonna Bomb Your Prize Picks NBA Bets and Cry Into Your Overpriced Sportsbook App

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You will lose. Don't do it, you will anyway...

It’s June 13, 2025, and you’re staring at your PrizePicks app, ready to throw your hard-earned cash into the NBA betting void like it’s a wishing well. Spoiler alert: you’re about to lose worse than a team facing Anthony Edwards in a dunk contest. Why? Because the NBA’s current trends are a chaotic mess, your gut’s dumber than a bag of hammers, and your “lock” picks are about as secure as a paper towel in a hurricane.

Grab your stale nachos and let’s break down why your PrizePicks account is headed for the dumpster.

Bomb Your Prize Picks - First off, you’re probably eyeing that points prop for your favorite star, thinking, “He’s good for 30, easy.” Wrong. The league’s top scorers—like Luka Dončić (35.1 PPG, per ESPN) or Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (33.4 PPG)—are streaky as hell. They’ll drop 40 one night, then 22 the next because they’re “load managing” or got distracted by a shiny new pair of sneakers. Meanwhile, you’re stuck with an “over 28.5” pick that’s deader than disco. And don’t even think about banking on role players. That “sneaky” 15.5 points prop for your team’s third option? He’s shooting 38.2% from the field (league average for bench guys, per Basketball-Reference) and passing to the mascot instead of scoring.

Rebounds? Ha! You see Victor Wembanyama averaging 10.9 boards and think, “Easy over.” Nope. The dude’s 7-foot-4 but gets boxed out by guys who look like they just wandered in from a hot dog stand. Big men across the league are grabbing fewer rebounds (average down to 43.1 per team) because everyone’s chucking threes like it’s a 3-point contest. Your “over 8.5 rebounds” bet is toast when your guy spends the game chasing stretch fours to the arc.

Assists are even worse. You’re hyped for that 7.5 assist prop on your point guard because he “sees the floor well.” Newsflash: turnovers are up to 13.8 per game league-wide, and your dude’s coughing up the ball like he’s allergic to it (average PG turnovers: 3.1). Guys like Nikola Jokić (9.7 APG) make it look easy, but your team’s playmaker is dishing 5 assists max while getting trapped by a double-team and yeeting the ball into the third row.

And don’t get cute with three-point props. The NBA’s shooting 36.8% from deep, but your guy’s either red-hot or colder than a polar bear’s toenails. You pick “over 2.5 threes” for a wing player averaging 1.9 makes? Congrats, he’s going 0-for-6 tonight because the defense “switched everything” and he’s allergic to driving. Even sharpshooters like Damian Lillard (3.2 threes per game) have off nights when they’d miss a shot in an empty gym.

Here’s the kicker: PrizePicks knows you’re a sucker for “trends.” You see a guy hit his points prop three games straight and think it’s a pattern. It’s not. It’s variance, and it’s laughing at you. The NBA’s 2025 pace (98.9 possessions per game) means more shots but also more randomness. Defenses are adjusting faster than your Wi-Fi during a storm, and coaches are pulling starters early to “preserve legs.” Your “safe” pick? Ruined by a fourth-quarter blowout.

So, you’ll load up your PrizePicks slip, hit “confirm,” and watch your dreams crash faster than a fan’s X post after a missed game-winner. By the end of the night, you’re down $50, rage-tweeting about “bad beats,” and googling “how to become an NFL bettor instead.” Save your money, pal—your NBA picks are cursed, and the only thing you’re winning is a one-way ticket to Broke City.

Go drown your sorrows in a $12 arena beer and pray for better luck next season.